Quicksand - Not Really That Great

[MrSaucy]

Wow.

I just did the math on the Warlord's Quicksand spell and I am very disappointed. Assuming the target creature uses every action possible to escape, they have a 75% of escaping. I was hoping for something like a 50% chance! So basically, Quicksand is only effective 25% of the time.

Now, you might argue that Quicksand is effective even IF the creature escapes since you are causing them to waste their move actions. They could be using these movie actions to attack you/your creatures instead. This is true; however, if your goal is to cause a creature to waste move actions, there are far better ways of doing this!

Quicksand feels like a nerfed spell. I think they should have made the cut-off point 3 load tokens instead of 4.

Thoughts on this?

[malgor]

didn't realize the percentage was that high.  doesn't it start at an 8+ roll?  I have a hard time hitting that....

[DarthDadaD20]

It is 8+ giving it a 67% chance that goes up......and when a beastmaster makes tagu its pet and you disable it for four mana....its not a bad card.

[Kytan]

I think quicksand is an incredibly versatile spell. You can pin down a creature, cause it to waste it's actions or maybe destroy the creature.  Now depending on which goal you want to achieve dictates how you use the spell.  If you want to restrain a creature or cause it to waste actions, you cast it on a creature before it activates and just let quicksand run its course. Worst case the creature loses one turn escaping, best case it's destroyed.  Now if your aiming to destroy the creature you need to cast quicksand after the target has activated and then stun/taunt the creature the next turn, that way the creature has only 2 chances to escape starting at a 10+. Not a guaranteed kill but the odds are in your favor.  Now there are spells that do all of these things better but none do all of these, it's versatility vs effectiveness.  Personally I think the destroy is just the icing on the cake and unless you have other spells or abilities.

[shapeshifter]

If the trapped creature spends every action to escape the chances of failing every roll before destroyed is extremely low (less than 5%). However can be used to extend the time a target in a prefered position, such as in range of a doulble/triple strike or a creature with slow. Its comparable to Tanglevine depending on the target.

[ringkichard]

Shapeshifter, how are you getting 5%?
The way I play Quicksand, you get 4 attempts to free yourself, and they get harder each time.
Are we playing the card differently?

a. Chance of rolling an 8+   =  5/12 =  .417
b. Chance of rolling a 9+=  4/12=  .333
c. Chance of rolling a 10+=  3/12=  .250
d. Chance of rolling an 11+=  2/12=  .167

The formula is p=(1-a)*(1-b)*(1-c)*(1-d)

Which simplifies to
(10!/6!)/12^4 = .243

Which is just slightly less than a 25% chance of slow murder by quicksand.

Of course, the chances of the quicksand killing the creature climb the longer the creature fails to escape.

0 failures= 24.3%
1 failure= 41.7%
2 failures= 62.5%
3 failures = 83.3%
4 failures = 100% (die, die, die!)

[baronzaltor]

The only reason I tend to favor Tanglevine over it is that Tanglevine can target the opposing mage whereas quicksand is limited to non mages.

[MrSaucy]

@ringkichard

I did the math a slightly different way but ended up with the same result as you did.

Also, after playing a match today, my faith in quicksand is restored. I used it on a hydra that was guarding the enemy mage. The hydra escaped on the third roll, but that gave me 2 free attacks on their mage without having to worry about a guard. Not only does quicksand force them to waste actions, but it renders the target immovable and restrained, something I definitely overlooked. As an additional bonus, quicksand is a conjuration, which means there is no real way to prevent it; nullify only works on enchantments or incantations!

Long story short, I run 2 quicksands in my warlord deck from now on.

[DarthDadaD20]

That card has saved my bacon a few times.....And I really love my bacon.

[Shad0w]

That card has saved my bacon a few times.....And I really love my bacon.

mmmmmMMMMMmmmmmm bacon.   :lol:  


Now back on topic Quicksand is far more balanced over some of the early versions.

[shapeshifter]

I math failed. This is correct

[Aarrow]

For either Tanglevine or Quicksand-  Can't you just Teleport out of it for zero mana as a quick action?

It seems these restraining cards should be more powerful to be playable.  How are players getting usage out of these?

[DarthDadaD20]

I math failed.

Math. Not even once.

Also, What are you talking about Aarrow, Like what card, or teleport for zero mana? What are you referring to?

[Aarrow]

Yes  Teleport.  I thought I read that you could Teleport for zero, staying in the same zone, but freeing any attached conjurations like Tanglevine.  If so, that seems too easy to use your quickcast to just get rid of it.

[MrSaucy]

The math is surprisingly simple. The creature is crushed if they roll 1-7 on the first roll, 1-8 on the second roll, 1-9 on the third roll, and 1-10 on the fourth roll. That gives you (7x8x9x10) / (12^4). Calculate it and it is 0.243, approximately 25% chance of being crushed. What if the creature was crushed after having 3 load tokens on it instead of 4? In that case, the odds of the creature being crushed would be (7x8x9) / (12^3). That ends up being 0.29, so 30%. 2 load tokens would be a 40% chance of being crushed and 1 load token would be a 60% of being crushed respectively.

Odds of pissing off your opponent? 100%.