Gaps in the new set
So we have now seen almost all the new cards (only Refreshing Rain remains unknown currently). Most of these new cards have been really interesting. But how many of them are actually competitively playable?
My main concerns are:
(1) a lack of tech to make existing creature spawnpoints more playable
(2) a convergence in what hurts both new mages: fire
(3) a lack of anti-flyer tech for both new mages (even Sardonyx failed the cut)
Let's deal with these points individually
(1) "Assassination not warfare"
Both new mages are swarm (Druid in combination with conjurations). They rely on spawnpoints to create a swarm. These spawnpoints are slightly better than the existing ones. But they are slow, an upfront investment for mid-range play.
But there are existing Aggro Tempo builds that come at you from the start and generally take apart spawnpoint openings. Opening with a spawnpoint is often risky. Because these Aggro Tempo builds simply target the opposing mage and assassinates him/her before troops can repulse his assault. "Going for the throat" may lack finesse and bypass some of the game's subtler ideas. It's not pretty but it works.
So what's changed? Have we got anything to help spawnpoints be more viable? Meditation Amulet is exactly as per promo. So not much help there. There is no new tech to encourage the existing aggressive mages to change their builds, dust off those creature spawnpoints and play mid range.
Admittedly Battle Forge, a staple of Aggro Tempo builds, has been weakened by Corrode (and indirectly Orchid). But Battle Forge is strong because it is not linked to its zone but deploys at range 2. And what it deploys comes into play immediately, not inactive. The attacked mid range mage has enough problems surviving to spend mana and actions on Acid Balls at Forge. If he does, that is tempo loss on his side.
Thus against existing mages, these aggressive builds are still credible. How they fare against the 2 new mages with their spawnpoints is yet to be seen.
(2) "The mage that burns brightest burns shortest"
Given time, Fire is the most destructive element (Earth has more upfront damage, Air is for control, Water is for utility). And both the 2 new mages have a vulnerability to fire.
In the case of the Druid, it is universal. There have been hints that Hydro Immunity will be changed. Which will mean Geyser can be used on her plants (as well as her). Refreshing Rain should also provide succour. But all her plants are Flame +2. That's a huge vulnerability.
With the Necromancer, burn direct damage is a solution to his resilient zombies with lower life. And you can be sure that he will be testing out his spanking new Cloak of Shadows instead of Elemental Cloak, one less item to Dissolve.
So what are the best fire spells?
Attacks: Ring of Fire for range 0 area. Flameblast for range 1 unavoidable. Fireball for range 2.
Persistent: Circle of Fire against swarm. Fire Demons. Lash of Hellfire.
(3) "Death from above"
Both of the 2 new mages lack anti-flyer tech.
The Druid's vine spells target non-flyers. Kralathor (overcosted except against undead), Togorah (rooted uproot 2) and Vinewhip Staff all have reach. Her other cards are ground level. Nightshade Lotus is her control spell against Few Big but can only attack non-flyers hence Sleep them. Even her Surging Wave can't Slam flyers. Yes, she has Raptors and Galador but they are range 1 full actions and dilute her plant synergies, those animals designed more for the Jokhtari Beastmaster.
The Necromancer is missing his flying Skeleton Dragon. He has Skeleton Archers which are at least range 2 but that's about it. He even lacks in-school ranged attack spells (beyond curses). He will need to pack Maim Wings but how many will remember to do this? Overall, like the Warlord, he's a pretty down-to-earth type of mage.
Flying is powerful because it prevents the opponent's mainly ground creatures from converging and removing the threat. It can pick and choose its target, focusing on a mage, ignoring guards if enchanted with Mongoose Agility or just by Sweeping if the flyer has that ability.
Summary
The common silver bullet behind all 3 meta developments is Adramelech, Lord of Fire. As successfully piloted by piousflea in those early days of the tournament scene, this highly aggressive build could tear apart many builds.
Since that early dominance, the Warlock gained Circle of Fire (ideal against swarms that will return with Etherian Lifetree) and Drain Soul. He now gains the excellent Cloak of Shadows, Risen Again for curse-weaving recursion and most Necromancer cards that take his fancy (like Zombie Brute). His Flame Hellion, a control piece, now competes with Dark Pact Slayer for Blood Reaper against some match-ups.
More importantly, the dominance of Wizard has been dented with the new set. Not only is the impregnable Armour + Voltaric Shield (now available to all to a lesser extent via Veteran's Belt) been weakened by Corrode but so has the armoured Wizard's Tower, also weakened by Cloak of Shadows. The Tower cannot cast full action spells needed to cope with swarm. Even Nullify is bypassed by Orchid and Lotus. Whilst wizard has gained Jelly as an arena cleaner (like Earth Elemental, a Slow full action attack nonliving), the designers have definitely attempted to bring him back on par with the other mages. This will make Wizards a less popular choice in the meta. Which is good news for the Warlock who feared Purge Magic on his stacked curses and the Wizard's Tower utility-change to Geyser to free action douse burn.
In fact temporarily, the popular choices will be the Necromancer and Druid. Because everybody wants to try out the new kids on the block. Even though, due to fear of creating something too powerful, these 2 new mages may not hold their own against current traditional builds that will evolve to cope with them. But only practice and experimenting (and having a whole lot of fun doing this) will discover if this is true.
So the meta could temporarily turn full circle. Enter Adramelech, Lord of Fire, the apotheosis of Aggro-Tempo, that sweeping bringer of fire and burn who soars safe above, swooping down to deal fiery death on enemy mages. The time has come to shine again and burn bright.
[Please feel free to critique this conclusion below]
