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« on: February 03, 2014, 04:31:43 PM »
I think the probability should be closer to 1 in a milion for the two consecutive rolls. There are 5 ways of getting 4 blanks and 1 normal damage so:
p = [ (5 * (2/3)^4) * 1/6 *1/12 ]^2 = 7.4e-7
but that is if you roll two times and only two times.
If you make several rolls over the course of a game (or several games), you have to consider that any of them can be the above. The probability for two of this roll to occur at least twice over, say thirty rolls (435 ways of arranging 2 rolls over 30 rolls total) is:
435 * p^2 * (1-p)^28 = 0.0003
Still unlikely, but not astronomical. And as Aylin suggests, this is only when looking at this particular result. The probability for any 2 results (no matter what result) to be identical over the course of 30 rolls, is higher of course.
There can still be a bug in the random generator I guess.
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