So Origins 2013 is over. At least 2/3 of the Tournament of Champions builds ran large numbers of Hands of Bimshalla plus Temple of Light, and the undefeated winning build (Steve Walters priestess) used 6x Hand and 3x Temple.

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So here's what is interesting about a Temple Build. The Hand of Bimshalla is only mildly overpowered by itself. The temple of light is worthless without Hands (you'll never get enough Dawnbreakers to buff it). However, the combo of Hand plus ToL proved to be absolutely over the top overpowered.

I am of the opinion that Mage Wars needs more strong combos, not less. However, Hand+ToL is not the right model to base them on, for the following reasons:
- Hand and Temple are both quick spells. You can have 3 hands + ToL and roll a 4 dice ranged attack on Round 2. This is far too fast of a combo, compared to how long it takes to get creatures or equipment out.
- Hand and Temple do not reward an opponent for trying to interrupt the combo. At 5 mana and level 1, it is easy to replace destroyed Hands. Temple is even worse. If your Temple attacks, then dies, recasting ToL lets you get a 2nd temple attack off on the same round! Ironically, killing the temple actually INCREASES its damage output.

However, I am all for combo cards being stronger. They just need limitations. Any combination of the following will work:
1) requires time (every-upkeep-phase effects)
2) requires map control (must control X outposts, Y zone exclusives, etc)
3) requires specific creatures (all soldiers gain X. Requires an Angel, a Knight, and 2 Clerics)
4) requires another card type (effect multiplied by number of temples, of walls, of mana Conjurations, etc.)
5) requires specific "combo points"

Some hypothetical examples:
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(1, 3) Mithril forge - generates Blade tokens each round and after X tokens gives a +Piercing or + melee bonus to Soldiers.

(2,3,4) Temple of Protection - Any time an attack is declared against a friendly creature within 0-2 range and LoS, you may pay 2 mana to use Temple of Protection as a defense. (d12+X) 10+, where X = number of Clerics you control.

(1,2,3) Idol of Desecration - Every upkeep phase, gain a Desecration token for every zone that contains a Demon creature you control. When a friendly Demon creature enters play, you may spend 9 Desecration tokens to teleport him into a zone with any other Demon creature you control, and activate his action marker.

(1,5) Hive - Generates an Insect token every round.
Thousand Stings - Attack spell. You must pay 2 Insect tokens as part of the casting cost. High damage zone Poison attack.
Insect Swarm - Enchantment. You must pay 3 Insect tokens as part of the reveal cost. Inflicts Poison damage every round. When target creature is destroyed, you may immediately cast and reveal Insect Swarm for no cost on any other creature in the same zone.
Hive Queen - Creature. Unique. You must pay 6 Insect tokens as part of the casting cost, but this creature does not cost mana. Generates Insect tokens every round.

(1,4) Quickened Mind - Enchant. During the Upkeep phase, gain a Thought token for each Psychic card you control. Gain a Thought token every time you cast a Psychic incantation. Maximum 6 Thought tokens. Immediately after any of your action phases, you may spend 6 Thought tokens to reset your Quick Cast marker.

(3,4) Entrench - Incantation. Until the end of the round, all your Soldier creatures gain Aegis X while Guarding, where X = the number of Walls you control.

(3,4) Malediction - Incantation, targets enemy creature. Performs an X dice Poison zone attack centered around target creature, where X is the total number of revealed Curse enchantments on the creature.

(2,4) Rain Cloud - Conjuration, Cloud, all Corporeal objects in this zone, or corporeal Walls bordering this zone, gain Flame -2 and Acid -2
Thunder Cloud - Conjuration, Cloud. Every upkeep performs a 2 dice Lightning zone attack with Flying +1
Smoke Cloud - Conjuration, Cloud. Blocks Line of Sight to or from all objects within this zone. Does not affect walls bordering this zone.
Hurricane - Unique Conjuration, Cloud. Every upkeep phase, pay 3 upkeep to perform an X dice Wind zone attack (-3 vs Clouds) against every zone containing a friendly Cloud, where X = total number of Clouds you control.

From the preview thread:

What happens if you attempt to transfuse a pile of enchantments to a creature with a hostile Nullify? Does it trigger at all? If so, does it nullify the entire Transfusion? Or does it only nullify the very first thing that you attempt to shift? If so, do you get to pay another X mana and attempt to shift it again?

I personally don't think that Nullify should trigger at all. Here's why:
- Nullify only works during the Counter Spell Step of casting an enchant or incantation.
- There's no such thing as a Counter Spell Step to revealing an enchantment.
- Therefore, nullify should not trigger at all.

Return on Investment: A concept

When we look at mana generator cards in MW, you spend anywhere from 4 to 6 Mana to increase your mana income by 1. Therefore, your "return on investment" (RoI) is either 1/4, 1/5, or 1/6 per round. This can also be expressed as a 4, 5, or 6 round break-even (BE).

You could argue that a 5-round BE is "average". Anything that breaks even in 4 or less rounds is an above-average investment, while anything that takes 6+ rounds is a below-average investment.

However, in the late game this assumption falls apart. If both players are low on health and could die on any given round, it is far better to blow all your mana on immediate damage or healing. Never forget that an investment that breaks even in X rounds sucks if the game ends in X-1 rounds.

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What a lot of people don't realize is that you can assess damage and actions in a similar fashion:
For example, a Fireball costs 8 Mana + 1 Quick Action to roll 6 dice and ~0.93 Burns. (approx. 9 damage vs. 0 armor, 6 damage vs. 5 armor)
Meanwhile, a Ghoul Rot on Mage costs 8 Mana + 1 Quick Action to deal 2 direct damage per round.

Looking at these numbers, Ghoul Rot takes anywhere from 3 to 5 rounds (depending on enemy Armor) to "break even" with Fireball.

So just by examining the relative value of the two spells, Ghoul Rot is an "average investment" relative to Fireball against 0 armor, but becomes a "very good investment" against high Armor. Again, whether or not Ghoul Rot is a superior play depends on the other guy's total HP. If he's got 3 HP left, a Fireball is very likely to kill instantly (0 rounds) while Ghoul Rot will still take 2 rounds. The fact that Ghoul Rot breaks even after 3 rounds is irrelevant if the enemy player is dead in 2.

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Okay, so now let's apply this concept to creatures:
A Fireball costs 8 Mana + 1 Quick Action to roll 6 dice and ~0.93 Burns. (approx. 9 damage vs. 0 armor, 6 damage vs. 5 armor)
A Skeleton costs 8 Mana + 1 Full action, and starting 1 round later it can roll 4 dice per round. (approx. 4 damage vs. 0 armor, 2 damage vs. 5 armor)

Regardless of enemy Armor, the Skeleton breaks even after 4 rounds. This makes it an "above average" investment in damage. So why use attack spells at all? Well, your opponent could kill the skeleton. He could daze or stun it. He could put an Iron Golem on Guard. All of these things would prevent the Skeleton from effectively using its damage dice, whereas a Fireball would always get its damage dice in.

In addition, the Skeleton uses a full action. If you weren't summoning, you might have used that full action to swing 4 or more damage dice (often much more). We'll talk more about this later.

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Now let's take this concept to the next level!
There are two enemy Falcons in my zone, pecking me for 3+3 dice per round. How worthwhile is a Ring of Fire?

A Ring of Fire has a 60% chance to one-shot a Falcon (it doesn't get to attack you this round). The surviving Falcons will get to attack you for at least 1 round.
- Surviving Falcons will have a 50% chance to have 1 or more Burn tokens.
- Of the Burning falcons ~67% of them will Burn to death over ~1.5 rounds.
- Overall, you will kill ~60% of Falcons instantly, ~10% of Falcons after 1 round, ~5% of Falcons after 2 rounds, and ~25% of Falcons will survive.

The traditional calculation says you're spending 9 Mana to kill an average of 1.5 Falcons (7.5 Mana) so it's not worth it. But what if we analyze it based on RoI, reducing the enemy's damage dice?
- On average, a Falcon struck by Ring of Fire will deal 1.2 damage dice the first round, 0.9 damage dice the second round, and 0.75 damage dice every round afterward.
- Compared to an unharmed Falcon, this is a 1.8 damage dice savings on the first round, 2.1 on the second, and 2.25 on the third.
- 9 mana is 1 more than a Fireball, which against an unarmored Mage would deal ~9 damage over 2 rounds. So for the purposes of our break-even analysis, let's assume that casting Ring of Fire allows your opponent to nuke you for ~10 damage dice.
* By the end of round 1, the Ring of Fire "saves" you 3.6 damage dice.
* By the end of round 2, the Ring of Fire "saves" you 7.8 damage dice.
* By the end of round 3, the Ring of Fire "saves" you 12.3 damage dice.

So even against just 2 Falcons, Ring of Fire has an extremely rapid 3-round BE! Because Falcons have a very high ratio of damage to health, you really want to kill them quickly, even if you have to use a "non mana efficient spell" to do so. But does this mean we should always use a zone-attack every time there are 2 Falcons in a zone?

Don't be silly! Ring of Fire may have a 3 round BE, but there are much less expensive ways to kill Falcons! If you can kill the Falcons with a Lash of Hellfire instead, you don't need to worry about "breaking even" because you never spend any mana in the first place.

Always remember: You can calculate break-even points for an investment, but achieving an objective for no cost is always superior to spending mana on an investment.

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Can we place a relative price on Quick Actions, and Full Actions?

The answer is: Sort of.

Compared to a Mana Crystal (+1 channeling with no action), a Battleforge or Thoughtspore has 1 channeling and 1 quick action, but costs 8 mana instead of 5. This is a +60% relative mana cost.

Does this mean that a quick action is worth 0.6 Mana? Don't be silly. A spawnpoint or familiar usually doesn't use its action every single round. Spawnpoints are additionally limited by range, and familiars are easily killed.

My best guess is that Quick Actions can be "priced" at ~2 Mana, while Full Actions are "priced" at around 4 Mana. Using these numbers makes Spawnpoints and Beastmaster passive seem vastly more mana efficient than you'd usually think.

However, you also have to realize that actions cost Mana. If you are mana starved, all the spawnpoints and familiars in the world are useless. Players are only willing to give up Mana for Actions if they have enough Mana to take those actions.

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What does this all mean?

Many times in Mage Wars, a player has the opportunity to choose between an action with immediate effects (such as a Battle Fury or Fireball) and an action with delayed effects (such as summoning a creature or casting an enchantment). Taking the latter action is like making an investment toward later rounds of the game.

In each of these situations, you should try to think about the following:
1) Is the game about to end? If not, then:
2) Is there a way to achieve the same objective without an investment? If not, then:
3) If you make an investment, will it pay off in a reasonable timeframe? If so, then:
4) Does your opponent have an investment with a stronger payoff than yours?
5) If so, then focus on destroying his investments. If not, then focus on making your own investments.

For example, for a Wizard paying 4 mana per mana crystal sounds like a pretty sweet RoI. However, if an enemy Beastmaster is summoning Foxes in your face, 3 dice per round is even sweeter for him than 1 Mana per round is for you.

Instead of focusing on your own investment, your best strategic option is to focus on destroying your opponent's investments. Throw out a Ring of Fire, a Suppression Cloak, a Circle of Lightning or a Darkfenne Hydra, and you'll rapidly cut his dog swarm down to size.

On the other hand, if your opponent is investing in 5-mana Crystals while you are investing in 4-mana Crystals, you are definitely coming out ahead. You should feel comfortable sitting back and continuing to build up - investing for a future full of big creatures and attack spells.

Sacrificial Altar seems to be a rarely used (in my experience) card with a tremendous amount of potential.

For 4 mana, the Altar (zone exclusive conjuration, Dark Mage Only) allows you to do the following:
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Once per round, before or after a friendly activation, you may destroy a creature you own and control to grant another creature +X Melee and +X Piercing until the end of the round.
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Now the first time I saw that card, I thought "This is terrible." Sacrificing a level-3 creature is like paying 17 mana (13 for the creature and 4 for the Altar) to give 3 dice and 3 piercing to a single melee strike! However, on second thought I am convinced that the Altar is incredibly awesome.

1) Sacrifice creatures that would have died anyways.
Got a Darkfenne Bat with 1hp and an Idol of Pestilence out? Make one last attack with the bat, and at the end of his activation Sacrifice him to buff one of your other creatures. It doesn't cost any mana or any actions!

Same goes for those situations where your opponent is focus-firing down one of your bigger creatures. That flaming hellion with 2hp left isn't going to last very long with 2 Knights of Westlock beating on it. So make its attack and then Sacrifice it at the end of the attack action.

For 1 quick action and 4 mana, if you can sacrifice a single level-2+ creature "for free", the Altar has paid for itself.

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2) Sacrifice works well with Battle Fury and/or Retaliate.

Unlike temporary bonuses that are worded as +X until the next attack, Sacrificial Altar gives +X/+X until the end of the round.

+3 Melee and +3 Piercing in exchange for a level-3 creature doesn't sound great... but +3 Melee and +3 Piercing for two (or three) attacks in one round is amazing.

It is theoretically possible to roll 30 attack dice with +6 Piercing: Take a Warlock with Lash, Bear Strength, Gaunts and Fireshaper Ring (9 dice total), sacrifice a Lord of Fire (+6 = 15 dice) and perform a Battle Fury attack (15 dice + 15 dice). Granted, it's a super expensive combo, but it could easily kill someone in one round (hope they didn't have Reverse Attack!).

As an extra bonus, if your warlock was hiding a Retaliate on him, he could retaliate an attack for another 15 dice. That's 45 attack dice (with +6 Piercing) in one round!

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3) Sacrifice completely ignores range, line of sight, incapacitation and banishment.

Did your opponent trap your Flaming Hellion in a corner square with 2 stone walls? Did he Sleep your Vampiress out of range of anything that can wake her? Did he just Banish your Lord of Fire?

Sacrificial Altar gives you an extra option. You can try to break the control spells and keep your creature in play, or you can Sacrifice the creature and Battle Fury for mega damage.

The mere possibility that you could Sacrifice a crowd controlled "big" and insta-gib your opponent can force him to play more cautiously. Or if he doesn't, you can make him eat 30 dice with +6 piercing.

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4) Sacrifice can "force" your opponent to waste attack dice on over-kill.

Your Lord of Fire has 2hp remaining and is stuck in a Force Crush. Sucks for you. Normally your opponent would ignore it and allow it to die its inevitable death.

However, you have a Warlock, a Bat and an Imp all in position to attack your opponent, and you could Sacrifice the Firelord to buff any one of the three. So your opponent uses his quickcast to throw an Invisible Fist and finish off the Firelord.

That's 4 mana and 1 action that he no longer has.

The text to Piercing Strike says:
"Target's next melee attack gains the Piercing +3 trait."

So what happens when you give Piercing Strike to a Hydra? The rulebook text for "Piercing +X" does not have an "only works once" limitation like "Melee +X".

However, the power of this combo seems to hinge upon the interpretation of "next melee attack".

Is Piercing Strike intended to apply to "next melee attack roll" (only the first of the Hydra's strikes), or "next melee attack action" (all three strikes)?

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Also, on an unrelated note:
How come the text for Perfect Strike says "target's next melee attack this round gains the Unavoidable trait", while Piercing Strike says "target's next melee attack gains the Piercing +3 trait"?

Does this mean that I could cast Piercing Strike before the end of a round, and it would carry forward to the next round?

A lot of the math in the game is pretty opaque. For example, when is Aegis 1 better than Armor +2? How much weaker is a 3+3+3 triplestrike compared to a single 9-dice attack? How much better is the Emerald Tegu's 9 hp and 3 armor when compared to a Wolf's 10 hp and 2 armor? How many attack dice do you need to kill 14 HP and 1 Armor in a single Battle Fury?

This spreadsheet can help:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B4xG98ZoLE5sY3FwZUpnamItZFk/edit?usp=sharing

Note that this is an XLSX file so you cannot actually use the spreadsheet on Google; you have to download the file to your hard drive and open it with Microsoft Excel.

As far as I know the math is correct. If anyone finds an error in the spreadsheet please let me know.

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Answers:

1) When is Aegis 1 better than Armor +2?
If you are starting at 0 Armor, +2 Armor is better than 1 Aegis in every situation except for a 2-dice attack (even then it's marginal).
If you are starting at 1 Armor, 1 Aegis is better against 2-3 attack dice, equal against 4 dice, and worse against 5+ dice.
If you are starting at 2 Armor, 1 Aegis is better against 2-5 attack dice, equal against 6 dice, and worse against 7+ dice.
If you are starting at 3 Armor, just take the Aegis.

2) How much weaker is 3+3+3 versus 9 attack dice?
Against 0 armor, they both deal 9 damage.
Against 1 armor, 9 dice does 8.026 damage, 3+3+3 does 6.889. (-14.2%)
Against 2 armor, 9 dice does 7.111 damage, 3+3+3 does 5.444. (-23.4%)
Against 3 armor, 9 dice does 6.312 damage, 3+3+3 does 4.833. (-23.4%)
Against 4 armor, 9 dice does 5.665 damage, 3+3+3 does 4.569. (-19.3%)

3) How much better is 9HP/3AC versus 10HP/2AC?
Not much. There is a <5% difference in "Rounds to kill" for 2-10 dice attacks. However, healing 1HP on 9HP/3AC is ~10% better than healing 1HP on 10HP/2AC.

How many attack dice do you need to kill 14 HP and 1 Armor in a single Battle Fury?
With 5+5 dice you have a 1.76% kill chance.
With 6+6 dice you have a 11.59% kill chance.
With 7+7 dice you have a 32.32% kill chance.
With 8+8 dice you have a 56.93% kill chance.
With 9+9 dice you have a 76.94% kill chance.

I've seen several people comment about sending "harassment" units to attack the opponent's starting Mana Crystals, but unless I'm totally mistaken this doesn't seem like a great idea.

A Mana Crystal costs 5 mana, gives 1 mana/turn, and has 6 HP / 2 Armor.
Therefore, if you cast Mana Crystal on Round 1, you'll break even at Round 6 and get a Mana surplus by Round 7.

The fastest way to rush the Mana Crystal is with a Bitterwood Fox (5 Mana, Fast, 3 dice atk) or Thunderift Falcon (6 Mana, Fast, 3 dice atk). A 3-dice attack deals an average of 1.81 damage against 2 Armor. It takes an average of 3.3 hits to kill the Mana Crystal.

If you cast a Fox/Falcon on Round 1, it can move 3 spaces on Round 2, and start hitting the Mana Crystal on Round 3. This means that the Mana Crystal is expected to die around Round 6 or 7.

Therefore, even without any attempt by the enemy player to kill your Fox/Falcon, the Mana Crystal won't die until it's already returned its full Mana cost.
   
On the other hand, if the enemy player kills your harassing Fox, you're down a tremendous amount of mana. Not only do you lose the 5 Mana from the fox, but your opponent is gaining a +1 mana advantage every single round.

Am I totally crazy, or is the "zergling rush" really not that great at crippling an economy?