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« on: October 12, 2013, 04:53:45 AM »
I was doing some messing around with my spellbooks and debating whether or not to make a Priest build. In my pondering, I came up with the question "How useful is Burn?" I wanted to know what kind of bang I was getting for my buck. I was pretty sure it is worth the 1 Mana, but exactly how valuable is it?
After twiddling around with the math a bit, I had my answer and I thought others may be interested in hearing about it, so I came here. I apologize if this is in the wrong forum as it regards a condition rather than a spell, but it seemed the most appropriate to me.
So first the Math. Thanks to Tarkin, I learned the formula for Average Burn Damage is Σ(2/3)^n where n = the number of rounds remaining in the game after Burn was applied minus 1, or Σ(2/3)^(r-1). Thus, to determine the Average Damage of the Burn Condition in general, you must determine how long a game is going to last. I created a chart in Excel that listed the Average Damage of the Burn Condition lasting from 1 Round to 100 rounds in one column, and in a second column I listed the Average Value of Burn assuming the Burn Condition could be placed every round remaining.
For example: If the game had 2 rounds remaining, the Average Damage of Burn would be 1.33. That is because a Burn placed immediately on your opponent would deal an Average of 1.66 Damage over the next 2 rounds, and a Burn placed the next round would deal an Average of 1 Damage. Taking the Average of both of these values yields a value of 1.33.
I'm not going to post the full chart, but I will post some milestones from it. All of these are rounded to the nearest tenths place.
In a game lasting 5 rounds, Burn deals an average of 2.0 damage. I believe most matches last longer than 5 rounds, but it shows that even in the most aggressive match, Burn has value.
In a game lasting 8 rounds Burn deals an average of 2.3 damage.
In a game lasting 11 rounds Burn deals an average of 2.5 damage.
In a game lasting 14 rounds Burn deals an average of 2.6 damage.
In a game lasting 18 rounds Burn deals an average of 2.7 damage.
In a game lasting 24 rounds Burn deals an average of 2.8 damage.
It takes a 40 round game before Burn reaches a value of 2.9 average damage.
The maximum value for Burn's Average Damage is 3. Although a Burn only requires 11 rounds to remain in the game for that specific Burn to deal an average of 3 damage, the Average Value of Burn over the course of an entire game doesn't reach 3 even within a 100 round game. It would require a truly epic game to reach that point.
Now, we need to account for your opponent removing Burn. I'm not sure how exactly to determine it's effect on Burn's Damage, but we can look at it's effects on the game.
The best way I could find to remove a single Burn Condition is with the Priestess' Restore ability. She can remove a Burn by simply paying it's removal cost (2 Mana) and spending a quick spell. This means that your burns might never do damage, but costs her twice as much mana as it cost you to apply it and costs her an action that you did not have to take. All together a pretty solid win.
The next best way, and THE best way for any other mages, looks to be with Geyser currently. It costs 4 Mana and also requires a quick spell, but it removes all Burn Conditions from the target. This means it gets better the more Burn Conditions there are before it is cast. However, if your opponent is letting Burns stack up before casting a Geyser, he's taking damage.
As an example, let us assume that your opponent decides to wait for 3 Burn Conditions to be applied before he casts Geyser. We'll also assume that you are only applying 1 Burn per round only using your Malakai's Fire ability on your Priest. You've spent a total of 3 Mana and dealt an average of 4.5 Damage (first burn has hit twice, 2nd burn has hit once, and the third burn was just applied so hasn't hit yet). All together, a 1 Mana advantage, 1 Action advantage, and 4.5 Damage advantage over your opponent. A good investment for 3 mana.
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